Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -1.6% and -0.8%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 16¢ · $101 held · ends Nov 17

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$100.64

Combined PnL

$35.4

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$78.5

Total Shares261

Combined PnL+$39.01

No2 traders

Total Value$22.14

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$3.61

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 13.4¢	$172.97	$61.96	+$29	36% 15157-27275 (42432)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.21	$14.65	-$2.56	61% 20889-13298 (34187)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$3.67	$13.4	+$9.73	53% 1116-998 (2114)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$8.54	$7.49	-$1.05	32% 4382-9430 (13812)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$2.86	$3.14	+$0.28	18% 522-2339 (2861)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.97

Value

$61.96

PnL

+$29

Record

36%

15157-27275 (42432)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.21

Value

$14.65

PnL

-$2.56

Record

61%

20889-13298 (34187)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.67

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$9.73

Record

53%

1116-998 (2114)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$8.54

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$1.05

Record

32%

4382-9430 (13812)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.14

PnL

+$0.28

Record

18%

522-2339 (2861)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.4%

15.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$474.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

574.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.