Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 81¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$365.72
$9.25
78.2¢ → 80.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 78.1¢ | $285.2 | $294.54 | +$9.34 | 41% 3084-4451 (7535) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $57.64 | $57.25 | -$0.38 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $9.16 | $9.33 | +$0.17 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $2.58 | $2.65 | +$0.07 | 26% 1207-3517 (4724) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.9 | $1.95 | +$0.05 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
Invested
$285.2
Value
$294.54
PnL
+$9.34
Record
41%
3084-4451 (7535)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$57.64
Value
$57.25
PnL
-$0.38
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
Invested
$9.16
Value
$9.33
PnL
+$0.17
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
Invested
$2.58
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.07
Record
26%
1207-3517 (4724)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.