Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 71¢ · $204 held · ends Nov 16
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Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$203.58
$6.08
69.6¢ → 70.8¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 68.6¢ | $173.17 | $181.21 | +$8.05 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $16.36 | $14.16 | -$2.2 | — 0-10 (10) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 68.8¢ | $7.97 | $8.21 | +$0.23 | 5% 18-315 (333) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.