Will Jamieson Greer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $79 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$79.49
$1.87
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $36.75 | $40.01 | +$3.26 | 17% 79-376 (455) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $28.68 | -$1.14 | 29% 886-2138 (3024) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $7.31 | $7.95 | +$0.64 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $1.26 | $1.35 | +$0.09 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.18 | $1.34 | +$1.16 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $2.3 | $0.16 | -$2.14 | 13% 28-182 (210) |
Invested
$36.75
Value
$40.01
PnL
+$3.26
Record
17%
79-376 (455)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$28.68
PnL
-$1.14
Record
29%
886-2138 (3024)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.31
Value
$7.95
PnL
+$0.64
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.35
PnL
+$0.09
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$1.16
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$2.14
Record
13%
28-182 (210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.