Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ja'Marr Chase win the 2026 NFL MVP?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $7 held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$6.8

Combined PnL

-$107.94

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 0.1¢

-98% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$6.8

Total Shares4,536

Combined PnL-$107.94

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

121h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$64.99	$3.75	-$61.24	55% 1473-1229 (2702)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$13.32	$0.9	-$12.42	40% 256-391 (647)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$3.28	$0.9	-$14.65	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7.28	$0.5	-$6.78	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$6.12	$0.31	-$5.51	40% 6648-10054 (16702)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.79	$0.3	-$4.9	55% 3188-2644 (5832)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.36	$0.09	-$1.47	18% 109-507 (616)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.78	$0.05	-$0.73	32% 3312-7188 (10500)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.18	$0.01	-$0.17	68% 13289-6320 (19609)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0	-$0.07	49% 6610-6994 (13604)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.99

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$61.24

Record

55%

1473-1229 (2702)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.32

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$12.42

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.28

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$14.65

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.28

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$6.78

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.12

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$5.51

Record

40%

6648-10054 (16702)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$4.9

Record

55%

3188-2644 (5832)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$1.47

Record

18%

109-507 (616)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.73

Record

32%

3312-7188 (10500)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.17

Record

68%

13289-6320 (19609)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

6610-6994 (13604)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

121h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.