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2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 77¢ · $641 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$641.13
$4.65
68.7¢ → 77¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $480.44 | $369.34 | +$14.41 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.1¢ | $256.06 | $254.05 | -$30.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $102.1 | $115.28 | +$45.37 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $125.1 | $120.8 | -$2.22 | 15% 459-2699 (3158) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.3¢ | $90.9 | $87.57 | -$3.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.6¢ | $32.09 | $33.22 | +$1.16 | |
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 68¢ | $98.6 | $111.65 | +$13.05 | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $35.84 | $30.8 | -$9.52 | 66% 936-492 (1428) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Noavg 77.7¢ | $54.7 | $8.55 | +$1.12 | 49% 1867-1968 (3835) |
Invested
$480.44
Value
$369.34
PnL
+$14.41
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$125.1
Value
$120.8
PnL
-$2.22
Record
15%
459-2699 (3158)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.6
Value
$111.65
PnL
+$13.05
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
Invested
$35.84
Value
$30.8
PnL
-$9.52
Record
66%
936-492 (1428)
Invested
$54.7
Value
$8.55
PnL
+$1.12
Record
49%
1867-1968 (3835)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.