Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 World Series MVP?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.2K
-$13.89
89.3¢ → 99.6¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$15.46 | 24% 285-894 (1179) |
 probability | Noavg 95.7¢ | $198.23 | $190.56 | -$7.67 | 41% 1347-1906 (3253) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 86.9¢ | $15.13 | $21.73 | +$6.6 | 36% 14999-27063 (42062) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $6.22 | $5.73 | -$0.49 | 99% 12778-186 (12964) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.08 | $3.22 | +$3.14 | 18% 3784-17096 (20880) |
IstarothInvested
$2,154.87
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$15.46
Record
24%
285-894 (1179)
probabilityInvested
$198.23
Value
$190.56
PnL
-$7.67
Record
41%
1347-1906 (3253)
Invested
$15.13
Value
$21.73
PnL
+$6.6
Record
36%
14999-27063 (42062)
Invested
$6.22
Value
$5.73
PnL
-$0.49
Record
99%
12778-186 (12964)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$3.14
Record
18%
3784-17096 (20880)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.