Will Jackson Olson win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $105 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$104.71
-$4.01
99.5¢ → 98.6¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $21.22 | $19.01 | -$2.22 | 29% 188-471 (659) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $21.22 | $19.01 | -$2.22 | 31% 307-669 (976) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $21.22 | $19.01 | -$2.22 | 32% 312-666 (978) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $21.22 | $19.01 | -$2.22 | 28% 161-411 (572) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $21.22 | $19.01 | -$2.22 | 30% 255-589 (844) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $2.6 | $9.69 | +$7.09 | 35% 14791-26919 (41710) |
Invested
$21.22
Value
$19.01
PnL
-$2.22
Record
29%
188-471 (659)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$19.01
PnL
-$2.22
Record
31%
307-669 (976)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$19.01
PnL
-$2.22
Record
32%
312-666 (978)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$19.01
PnL
-$2.22
Record
28%
161-411 (572)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$19.01
PnL
-$2.22
Record
30%
255-589 (844)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$9.69
PnL
+$7.09
Record
35%
14791-26919 (41710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.