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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $204 held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$204.46
$3.56
85.1¢ → 84¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 86.3¢ | $109.54 | $106.67 | -$2.87 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $70 | $75.28 | +$5.28 | 39% 1052-1631 (2683) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $16.31 | $17.56 | +$1.25 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.2 | -$0.1 | 79% 19-5 (24) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.75 | $0.75 | +$0 | 84% 62-12 (74) |
Invested
$109.54
Value
$106.67
PnL
-$2.87
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
Invested
$70
Value
$75.28
PnL
+$5.28
Record
39%
1052-1631 (2683)
Invested
$16.31
Value
$17.56
PnL
+$1.25
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
79%
19-5 (24)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.75
PnL
+$0
Record
84%
62-12 (74)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.