Will "Izzo (H.O.V.A.)" be played at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 76¢ · $55 held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$55.33
-$1.74
Research grade
NeutralYes at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 76¢ | $26.26 | $25.74 | -$0.52 | — 1-9 (10) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $15.8 | $14.8 | -$1 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $12.48 | $12 | -$0.48 | — 0-12 (12) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $7.53 | $2.79 | +$0.26 | — 6-8 (14) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.