Will Ivica Dačić win the next Serbia presidential election?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $285 held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$285.08
-$57.22
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
630h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 93.9¢ | $95.77 | $102.08 | +$6.31 | 53% 8615-7689 (16304) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $53.45 | $78.73 | -$17.41 | 47% 1358-1502 (2860) |
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR<$100 | Yes | $50.8 | $50.8 | -$11.23 | 72% 119-46 (165) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $51.56 | $47.23 | -$30.18 | 40% 1583-2384 (3967) |
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $5 | $6.04 | -$4.67 | 38% 470-753 (1223) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $0.23 | $0.2 | -$0.03 | 31% 3287-7149 (10436) |
Invested
$95.77
Value
$102.08
PnL
+$6.31
Record
53%
8615-7689 (16304)
Invested
$53.45
Value
$78.73
PnL
-$17.41
Record
47%
1358-1502 (2860)
Invested
$50.8
Value
$50.8
PnL
-$11.23
Record
72%
119-46 (165)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$51.56
Value
$47.23
PnL
-$30.18
Record
40%
1583-2384 (3967)
Invested
$5
Value
$6.04
PnL
-$4.67
Record
38%
470-753 (1223)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.03
Record
31%
3287-7149 (10436)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.