Will Italy win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $759 held · ends Dec 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$759.26

Combined PnL

$105.14

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$594.3

Total Shares636

Combined PnL+$4.04

Yes4 traders

Total Value$164.96

Total Shares1,665

Combined PnL+$101.1

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.5¢	$362.27	$373.72	+$11.45	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$38.46	$127.61	+$89.15	40% 280-415 (695)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98¢	$79.48	$79.49	+$0.01	58% 914-665 (1579)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$81.68	$43.18	-$6.03	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97¢	$39.81	$40.22	+$0.41	47% 938-1056 (1994)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$30.5	$36.5	+$38.69	27% 109-299 (408)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99¢	$21.93	$21.15	-$0.78	23% 816-2733 (3549)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$20.25	$19.05	-$1.2	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97¢	$17.31	$17.49	+$0.18	52% 969-886 (1855)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$13.67	$0.58	-$13.09	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$14.01	$0.27	-$13.65	21% 32-119 (151)

cigarettes

Invested

$362.27

Value

$373.72

PnL

+$11.45

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$38.46

Value

$127.61

PnL

+$89.15

Record

40%

280-415 (695)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$79.48

Value

$79.49

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

914-665 (1579)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$81.68

Value

$43.18

PnL

-$6.03

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$39.81

Value

$40.22

PnL

+$0.41

Record

47%

938-1056 (1994)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.5

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$38.69

Record

27%

109-299 (408)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$21.93

Value

$21.15

PnL

-$0.78

Record

23%

816-2733 (3549)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.25

Value

$19.05

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$17.31

Value

$17.49

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

969-886 (1855)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.67

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$13.09

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.01

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$13.65

Record

21%

32-119 (151)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.