Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 99¢ · $495 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$494.93

Combined PnL

-$114.67

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 98.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$481.55

Total Shares485

Combined PnL-$60.06

Yes9 traders

Total Value$13.37

Total Shares1,337

Combined PnL-$54.61

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4944h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rated	Noavg 98.5¢	$364.74	$209.88	-$10.22	29% 2883-7029 (9912)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.3¢	$143.98	$143.55	-$0.42	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
CR cry.eth2	Noavg 98.2¢	$125.41	$81.23	-$8.57	40% 9686-14590 (24276)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 98.7¢	$740.01	$24.53	-$38.31	42% 10332-14359 (24691)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Noavg 98.9¢	$288.9	$11.2	-$2.57	32% 6398-13301 (19699)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.78	$5.84	+$0.07	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.36	$5.33	-$0.03	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
paddaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.02	$5.22	-$37.27	57% 860-658 (1518)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$6.16	$2.95	-$0.49	18% 4276-20026 (24302)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.8	$2.45	-$0.35	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.4	$2	+$0.3	44% 2186-2829 (5015)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$59.34	$0.3	-$16.22	36% 2007-3593 (5600)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$0.81	$0.21	-$0.6	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
DO DooBieZCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.07	$0.14	+$0.07	55% 2141-1785 (3926)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.07	$0.07	+$0	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.1	$0.03	-$0.07	45% 3680-4411 (8091)

rated

Invested

$364.74

Value

$209.88

PnL

-$10.22

Record

29%

2883-7029 (9912)

smallreceipt

Invested

$143.98

Value

$143.55

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

cry.eth2

Invested

$125.41

Value

$81.23

PnL

-$8.57

Record

40%

9686-14590 (24276)

influenz.eth

Invested

$740.01

Value

$24.53

PnL

-$38.31

Record

42%

10332-14359 (24691)

wokerjoesleeper

Invested

$288.9

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$2.57

Record

32%

6398-13301 (19699)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.78

Value

$5.84

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$5.36

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$0.03

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

paddaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$37.27

Record

57%

860-658 (1518)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.16

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.49

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

44%

2186-2829 (5015)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.34

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$16.22

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.6

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

DooBieZCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.14

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

2141-1785 (3926)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.07

Record

45%

3680-4411 (8091)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

4944h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.