Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 99¢ · $583 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$582.61

Combined PnL

-$74.65

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 98.9¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$566.87

Total Shares573

Combined PnL+$2.55

Yes5 traders

Total Value$15.74

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL-$77.21

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4958h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR cry.eth2	Noavg 95¢	$280.73	$243.64	+$36.89	40% 9706-14609 (24315)
RA rated	Noavg 97.5¢	$360.97	$207.76	-$8.77	29% 2887-7032 (9919)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$49.88	$41.88	+$3.26	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
IN influenz.eth	Noavg 97.9¢	$715.41	$36.95	-$28.2	42% 10353-14366 (24719)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$19.68	$19.6	-$0.08	38% 3083-4954 (8037)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 97¢	$11.38	$9.8	+$0.25	77% 12390-3803 (16193)
paddaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$70.45	$9.71	-$60.73	57% 865-662 (1527)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5.34	$5.27	-$0.07	42% 3173-4329 (7502)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$3.47	$4.77	+$1.31	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Noavg 98.4¢	$277.21	$1.97	-$0.73	33% 6416-13318 (19734)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$58.92	$0.6	-$15.89	36% 2020-3628 (5648)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$3.22	$0.52	-$1.92	46% 3688-4417 (8105)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.1	$0.13	+$0.03	27% 6898-18905 (25803)

cry.eth2

Invested

$280.73

Value

$243.64

PnL

+$36.89

Record

40%

9706-14609 (24315)

rated

Invested

$360.97

Value

$207.76

PnL

-$8.77

Record

29%

2887-7032 (9919)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$49.88

Value

$41.88

PnL

+$3.26

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

influenz.eth

Invested

$715.41

Value

$36.95

PnL

-$28.2

Record

42%

10353-14366 (24719)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

3083-4954 (8037)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$11.38

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

paddaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.45

Value

$9.71

PnL

-$60.73

Record

57%

865-662 (1527)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

42%

3173-4329 (7502)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.47

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$1.31

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

wokerjoesleeper

Invested

$277.21

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$0.73

Record

33%

6416-13318 (19734)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.92

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$15.89

Record

36%

2020-3628 (5648)

LetTheGoodTimesRollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.22

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$1.92

Record

46%

3688-4417 (8105)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.03

Record

27%

6898-18905 (25803)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4958h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.