Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 75¢ · $725 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$725.16
$85.76
74¢ → 74.7¢
+1% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 68.2¢ | $300.07 | $352.48 | +$52.41 | 50% 1225-1243 (2468) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 81¢ | $109.35 | $103.95 | -$5.4 | 50% 7877-7999 (15876) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $223.24 | $48.99 | +$40.89 | 35% 17002-31476 (48478) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $49.33 | $47.59 | -$1.74 | 79% 10771-2805 (13576) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $48.6 | $46.2 | -$2.4 | 55% 26083-21500 (47583) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $57.15 | $38.97 | -$1.56 | 18% 4077-19113 (23190) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $35.42 | $34.85 | +$6.82 | 16% 403-2040 (2443) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $15.8 | $15.4 | -$0.4 | 46% 5530-6562 (12092) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 86.9¢ | $15.38 | $13.63 | -$1.75 | 28% 5995-15779 (21774) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8 | $7.7 | -$0.3 | 53% 8986-8117 (17103) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $7.7 | -$0.2 | 57% 8723-6609 (15332) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $8.3 | $7.7 | -$0.6 | 62% 13070-7862 (20932) |
Invested
$300.07
Value
$352.48
PnL
+$52.41
Record
50%
1225-1243 (2468)
Invested
$109.35
Value
$103.95
PnL
-$5.4
Record
50%
7877-7999 (15876)
Invested
$223.24
Value
$48.99
PnL
+$40.89
Record
35%
17002-31476 (48478)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$49.33
Value
$47.59
PnL
-$1.74
Record
79%
10771-2805 (13576)
balthazar<$100Invested
$48.6
Value
$46.2
PnL
-$2.4
Record
55%
26083-21500 (47583)
2B9S<$100Invested
$57.15
Value
$38.97
PnL
-$1.56
Record
18%
4077-19113 (23190)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$35.42
Value
$34.85
PnL
+$6.82
Record
16%
403-2040 (2443)
Invested
$15.8
Value
$15.4
PnL
-$0.4
Record
46%
5530-6562 (12092)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$13.63
PnL
-$1.75
Record
28%
5995-15779 (21774)
Invested
$8
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
53%
8986-8117 (17103)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$0.2
Record
57%
8723-6609 (15332)
Invested
$8.3
Value
$7.7
PnL
-$0.6
Record
62%
13070-7862 (20932)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
SnapElectionAvoider
No — $352.48
smallreceipt
No — $103.95
xtxpleasecallme
CTRYes — $48.99
Lucerys
No — $47.59
balthazar
No — $46.2
2B9S
No — $38.97
Istaroth
No — $34.85
korda77
No — $15.4
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271
No — $13.63
quietparcel
No — $7.7