Will ISM Services PMI be below 51.0 in October?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $79 held · ends Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$79.23

Combined PnL

$3.75

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$23.93

Total Shares357

Combined PnL+$3.52

No3 traders

Total Value$55.3

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$20.28	$20.98	+$0.7	36% 15698-27712 (43410)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$28.69	$20.12	-$0	19% 335-1419 (1754)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.4	$18.66	+$1.26	52% 5013-4702 (9715)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$17.54	$16.51	-$1.03	32% 4465-9568 (14033)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.13	$2.95	+$2.82	18% 3817-17278 (21095)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.28

Value

$20.98

PnL

+$0.7

Record

36%

15698-27712 (43410)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$28.69

Value

$20.12

PnL

-$0

Record

19%

335-1419 (1754)

korda77<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$18.66

PnL

+$1.26

Record

52%

5013-4702 (9715)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$17.54

Value

$16.51

PnL

-$1.03

Record

32%

4465-9568 (14033)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$2.82

Record

18%

3817-17278 (21095)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.3%

88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.