Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in November?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $473 held · ends Dec 1

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$473.48

Combined PnL

$52.07

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 70.5¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$429.89

Total Shares600

Combined PnL+$58.7

Yes2 traders

Total Value$43.58

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$6.63

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 60.5¢	$350.34	$408.17	+$57.82	— 4-15 (19)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.9¢	$40.85	$36.5	-$4.35	— 0-10 (10)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 68¢	$20.85	$21.73	+$0.88	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$9.36	$7.08	-$2.28	— 1-9 (10)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$350.34

Value

$408.17

PnL

+$57.82

Record

—

4-15 (19)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.85

Value

$36.5

PnL

-$4.35

Record

—

0-10 (10)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$20.85

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$0.88

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.36

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$2.28

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.