Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will IShowSpeed win Streamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 11¢ · $54 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$54.4
-$3.17
Research grade
AvoidNo at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 86.5¢ | $40.67 | $37.63 | -$3.04 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $6.6 | $6.9 | +$0.3 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $6.41 | $5.83 | -$0.58 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $2.3 | +$0.1 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 10¢ | $1.02 | $1.18 | +$0.15 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $0.67 | $0.57 | -$0.1 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
Invested
$40.67
Value
$37.63
PnL
-$3.04
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.9
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$6.41
Value
$5.83
PnL
-$0.58
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.02
Value
$1.18
PnL
+$0.15
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$0.1
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.