Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 27¢ · $375 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$374.7
$92.86
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PorxCTR | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $151.87 | $177.07 | +$34.01 | 66% 1461-757 (2218) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 71.5¢ | $410.16 | $127.97 | +$60.98 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $50.5 | $50 | -$0.07 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $15.8 | $14.2 | -$1.6 | 67% 4139-2004 (6143) |
 Udonsan<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $5.92 | $5.46 | -$0.46 | 77% 222-65 (287) |
PorxCTRInvested
$151.87
Value
$177.07
PnL
+$34.01
Record
66%
1461-757 (2218)
Invested
$410.16
Value
$127.97
PnL
+$60.98
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.07
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Car<$100Invested
$15.8
Value
$14.2
PnL
-$1.6
Record
67%
4139-2004 (6143)
Udonsan<$100Invested
$5.92
Value
$5.46
PnL
-$0.46
Record
77%
222-65 (287)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.