Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 65¢ · $793 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$792.93
-$3.05
78.8¢ → 64.5¢
-18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.4¢ | $569.18 | $574.9 | +$5.72 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 82¢ | $113.88 | $105.55 | -$8.33 | — 6-8 (14) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $71.8 | $69.5 | -$2.3 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | — 0-12 (12) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $11.19 | $16.26 | +$5.06 | — 2-2 (4) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $29.94 | $6.72 | -$3 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
Invested
$569.18
Value
$574.9
PnL
+$5.72
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
HaradwaithInvested
$113.88
Value
$105.55
PnL
-$8.33
Record
—
6-8 (14)
Invested
$71.8
Value
$69.5
PnL
-$2.3
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$11.19
Value
$16.26
PnL
+$5.06
Record
—
2-2 (4)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$3
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.