Will Iran target Oman by December 31, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 55¢ · $207 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$207.3
-$9.72
68.5¢ → 54.5¢
-20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 62.2¢ | $126.19 | $134.97 | +$8.78 | 40% 2998-4409 (7407) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $56.25 | $32.55 | -$23.7 | — 6-8 (14) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $23.21 | $28.01 | +$4.8 | 52% 5277-4791 (10068) |
HU hugecaulkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $9.8 | $8.52 | -$1.28 | — 0-17 (17) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.9¢ | $6.12 | $3.26 | +$1.68 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
Invested
$126.19
Value
$134.97
PnL
+$8.78
Record
40%
2998-4409 (7407)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$56.25
Value
$32.55
PnL
-$23.7
Record
—
6-8 (14)
Invested
$23.21
Value
$28.01
PnL
+$4.8
Record
52%
5277-4791 (10068)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$8.52
PnL
-$1.28
Record
—
0-17 (17)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$3.26
PnL
+$1.68
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.