Will Iowa be the closest Senate race in 2026?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$65.02

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 98.7¢

+21% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,644

Combined PnL-$57.99

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.95

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$7.03

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+64 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 82.6¢	$1.2K	$767.37	-$105.95	45% 2407-2981 (5388)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 81.8¢	$647.78	$394.09	+$12.19	35% 17606-32935 (50541)
Istaroth	Noavg 75.7¢	$223.7	$215.68	-$7.3	15% 432-2410 (2842)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$82.94	$93.29	+$10.35	79% 12015-3213 (15228)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$79.33	$65.02	+$15.68	48% 8592-9145 (17737)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$23.59	$27.9	+$4.31	54% 22113-19218 (41331)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 88.8¢	$17.76	$19.72	+$1.96	30% 2158-5000 (7158)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 81.6¢	$16.4	$18.69	+$2.29	41% 4499-6366 (10865)
0xdc3E831cad<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$12.24	$18.6	+$2.77	49% 1837-1904 (3741)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$38.4	$9.81	+$5.76	53% 8018-7122 (15140)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.99	$2.95	-$0.05	47% 1608-1792 (3400)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$13.46	$1.95	-$7.03	17% 1076-5374 (6450)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,190.56

Value

$767.37

PnL

-$105.95

Record

45%

2407-2981 (5388)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$647.78

Value

$394.09

PnL

+$12.19

Record

35%

17606-32935 (50541)

Istaroth

Invested

$223.7

Value

$215.68

PnL

-$7.3

Record

15%

432-2410 (2842)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$82.94

Value

$93.29

PnL

+$10.35

Record

79%

12015-3213 (15228)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$79.33

Value

$65.02

PnL

+$15.68

Record

48%

8592-9145 (17737)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.59

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$4.31

Record

54%

22113-19218 (41331)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$17.76

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$1.96

Record

30%

2158-5000 (7158)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$2.29

Record

41%

4499-6366 (10865)

0xdc3E831cad<$100

Invested

$12.24

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$2.77

Record

49%

1837-1904 (3741)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$38.4

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$5.76

Record

53%

8018-7122 (15140)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

1608-1792 (3400)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.46

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$7.03

Record

17%

1076-5374 (6450)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+64 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.