Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 33¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.1K
-$329.39
64.6¢ → 33¢
-49% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
160h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Noavg 67.8¢ | $930.42 | $459.84 | -$470.58 | 59% 1054-734 (1788) |
BU buoys | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $168.06 | $431.97 | +$263.91 | 45% 784-948 (1732) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR | Noavg 53.7¢ | $129.59 | $79.56 | -$50.03 | 38% 3019-4850 (7869) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Noavg 58.2¢ | $100.77 | $57.1 | -$43.68 | 14% 9498-60732 (70230) |
 Optimus-CTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $68.5 | $38.97 | -$29.52 | 61% 1259-808 (2067) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758<$100 | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $0.82 | $1.34 | +$0.52 | 52% 164-153 (317) |
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$930.42
Value
$459.84
PnL
-$470.58
Record
59%
1054-734 (1788)
Invested
$168.06
Value
$431.97
PnL
+$263.91
Record
45%
784-948 (1732)
Invested
$129.59
Value
$79.56
PnL
-$50.03
Record
38%
3019-4850 (7869)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$100.77
Value
$57.1
PnL
-$43.68
Record
14%
9498-60732 (70230)
Optimus-CTR<$100Invested
$68.5
Value
$38.97
PnL
-$29.52
Record
61%
1259-808 (2067)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0.52
Record
52%
164-153 (317)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.