Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 80¢ · $830 held · ends Mar 15, 2027

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Mon, Mar 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$830.08

Combined PnL

$78.28

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 80¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$748.11

Total Shares1,008

Combined PnL-$20.01

No4 traders

Total Value$81.97

Total Shares315

Combined PnL+$98.29

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Yesavg 76¢	$760	$740	-$20	61% 839-544 (1383)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 23.9¢	$83.9	$41.26	+$51.31	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 25.7¢	$18.22	$16.39	+$0.28	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
AnjunCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$12.1	$14.3	+$2.2	55% 4929-3989 (8918)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 23.5¢	$47.66	$10.02	+$44.5	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$8.28	$8.11	-$0.01	18% 366-1654 (2020)

tetrase

Yes

Invested

$760

Value

$740

PnL

-$20

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$83.9

Value

$41.26

PnL

+$51.31

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.22

Value

$16.39

PnL

+$0.28

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

AnjunCTR<$100

Invested

$12.1

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$2.2

Record

55%

4929-3989 (8918)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$47.66

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$44.5

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.28

Value

$8.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

18%

366-1654 (2020)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.