Will Illinois win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $5K held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$47.17

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 91¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,902

Combined PnL-$92.59

Yes1 trader

Total Value$45

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$45.42

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hyperlong	Noavg 90.4¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$94.31	47% 324-369 (693)
ND ndb1	Noavg 89.4¢	$161.27	$164.09	+$1.92	64% 1050-593 (1643)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.68	$45	+$45.42	39% 2901-4499 (7400)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.3	$9.1	-$0.2	31% 4467-9741 (14208)

Hyperlong

Invested

$5,161.66

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$94.31

Record

47%

324-369 (693)

ndb1

Invested

$161.27

Value

$164.09

PnL

+$1.92

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.68

Value

$45

PnL

+$45.42

Record

39%

2901-4499 (7400)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

31%

4467-9741 (14208)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.