Will Illinois win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 91¢ · $211 held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$210.91

Combined PnL

$173.77

Research grade

AvoidNo at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$164.09

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$1.92

Yes2 traders

Total Value$46.82

Total Shares520

Combined PnL+$171.85

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Noavg 89.4¢	$161.27	$164.09	+$1.92	64% 1053-596 (1649)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.68	$45	+$45.42	39% 2908-4509 (7417)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$6.83	$1.82	+$126.43	34% 19370-36924 (56294)

ndb1

Invested

$161.27

Value

$164.09

PnL

+$1.92

Record

64%

1053-596 (1649)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.68

Value

$45

PnL

+$45.42

Record

39%

2908-4509 (7417)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.83

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$126.43

Record

34%

19370-36924 (56294)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.