Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$179.35

Smart Money Entry

81.5¢ → 90¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,759

Combined PnL+$178.07

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.81

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$1.28

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
esports095	Noavg 79.8¢	$955.27	$1.1K	+$162.46	58% 650-467 (1117)
alanhutton	Noavg 90.9¢	$167.89	$169.05	+$1.16	68% 322-150 (472)
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 84¢	$114.76	$129.2	+$14.45	50% 1068-1081 (2149)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$3.03	$5.91	+$2.88	42% 142-198 (340)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$3.4	$3.9	-$1.6	53% 194-169 (363)

esports095

Invested

$955.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$162.46

Record

58%

650-467 (1117)

alanhutton

Invested

$167.89

Value

$169.05

PnL

+$1.16

Record

68%

322-150 (472)

Albert 1953

Invested

$114.76

Value

$129.2

PnL

+$14.45

Record

50%

1068-1081 (2149)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.03

Value

$5.91

PnL

+$2.88

Record

42%

142-198 (340)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

194-169 (363)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.6%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.