Will Huang Shih-chieh win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 29

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$36.42

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 92.4¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,220

Combined PnL+$14.04

Yes2 traders

Total Value$34.22

Total Shares450

Combined PnL+$22.38

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 91.6¢	$916	$924	+$8	56% 16351-13106 (29457)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 90.7¢	$181.35	$203.28	+$6.04	53% 23521-20733 (44254)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$10.89	$30.56	+$19.66	17% 4496-22003 (26499)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.96	$3.66	+$2.72	47% 2079-2388 (4467)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$916

Value

$924

PnL

+$8

Record

56%

16351-13106 (29457)

cigarettes

Invested

$181.35

Value

$203.28

PnL

+$6.04

Record

53%

23521-20733 (44254)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.89

Value

$30.56

PnL

+$19.66

Record

17%

4496-22003 (26499)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$2.72

Record

47%

2079-2388 (4467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.6%

92.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.