Will Huang Shih-chieh win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 93¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 29

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$2.91

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 93.1¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares5,052

Combined PnL-$1.07

Yes2 traders

Total Value$336.71

Total Shares4,845

Combined PnL-$1.84

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

402h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 93¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	+$0.92	66% 4056-2071 (6127)
KO korda77	Noavg 93.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$3.35	86% 32-5 (37)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 93¢	$563.63	$563.88	+$0.25	28% 2449-6153 (8602)
ME merod	Noavg 93¢	$390.6	$390.81	+$0.21	85% 23-4 (27)
AN anothercoin	Noavg 93¢	$372	$372.2	+$0.2	38% 1192-1980 (3172)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 7¢	$332.36	$329.99	-$2.37	46% 459-547 (1006)
VI VictorLudorum	Noavg 93¢	$236.03	$236.16	+$0.13	— 0-13 (13)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$92.9	$93.05	+$0.15	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93¢	$93	$93.05	+$0.05	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
broskye<$100	Noavg 93¢	$27.9	$27.92	+$0.02	42% 174-238 (412)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$24.41	$24.68	+$0.27	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$7.1	$7.18	+$0.08	51% 263-254 (517)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$6.2	$6.73	+$0.53	— 5-5 (10)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$1,860

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0.92

Record

66%

4056-2071 (6127)

korda77

Invested

$1,082.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$3.35

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$563.63

Value

$563.88

PnL

+$0.25

Record

28%

2449-6153 (8602)

merod

Invested

$390.6

Value

$390.81

PnL

+$0.21

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

anothercoin

Invested

$372

Value

$372.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

1192-1980 (3172)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$332.36

Value

$329.99

PnL

-$2.37

Record

46%

459-547 (1006)

VictorLudorum

Invested

$236.03

Value

$236.16

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

0-13 (13)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$92.9

Value

$93.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$93

Value

$93.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

broskye<$100

Invested

$27.9

Value

$27.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

174-238 (412)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$24.41

Value

$24.68

PnL

+$0.27

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

263-254 (517)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.73

PnL

+$0.53

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

402h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.