Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2029?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $265 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$264.84
$5.79
84.6¢ → 88¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts | Noavg 85.6¢ | $152.33 | $155.34 | +$3.01 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $69.93 | $66.34 | -$3.59 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85¢ | $42.5 | $43.5 | +$1 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18¢ | $27.43 | $22.84 | -$4.59 | |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $32.19 | $35.02 | +$2.82 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $6.96 | $6.96 | +$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $1.22 | $1.18 | -$0.04 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
LornaPredictsInvested
$152.33
Value
$155.34
PnL
+$3.01
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
Invested
$69.93
Value
$66.34
PnL
-$3.59
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.19
Value
$35.02
PnL
+$2.82
Record
4%
17-366 (383)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$6.96
Value
$6.96
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.18
PnL
-$0.04
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.