Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Howard Lutnick be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $103 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$103.22

Combined PnL

-$39.25

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$97.65

Total Shares99

Combined PnL-$1.49

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.57

Total Shares310

Combined PnL-$37.76

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$99.14	$97.65	-$1.49	53% 5995-5369 (11364)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$37.53	$5.02	-$26.51	40% 3217-4824 (8041)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$3.22	$0.52	-$2.7	2% 1-59 (60)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$88.57	$0.03	-$8.54	17% 87-438 (525)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$99.14

Value

$97.65

PnL

-$1.49

Record

53%

5995-5369 (11364)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.53

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$26.51

Record

40%

3217-4824 (8041)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.22

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$2.7

Record

1-59 (60)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.57

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.54

Record

17%

87-438 (525)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3464.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

3565.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.