Will "How to Rob a Bank" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $346 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$345.63
$16.14
84.8¢ → 91.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 85¢ | $127.5 | $137.25 | +$9.75 | 53% 5671-5100 (10771) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $89.84 | $95.05 | +$5.21 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82¢ | $67.04 | $70.35 | +$3.31 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $22.8 | $24.7 | +$1.9 | |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $85 | $90.44 | +$5.44 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $20.2 | $21 | +$0.8 | 3% 1-31 (32) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $1.75 | $1.9 | +$0.15 | 54% 565-474 (1039) |
Invested
$127.5
Value
$137.25
PnL
+$9.75
Record
53%
5671-5100 (10771)
Invested
$89.84
Value
$95.05
PnL
+$5.21
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
Both legs:
balthazar<$100Invested
$85
Value
$90.44
PnL
+$5.44
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$21
PnL
+$0.8
Record
3%
1-31 (32)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
565-474 (1039)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.