Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

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9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 8.0¢ · $71 held · ends Nov 15

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$70.55

Combined PnL

-$34.3

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$25.8

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$1.34

No9 traders

Total Value$44.69

Total Shares541

Combined PnL-$35.65

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$24.45	$25.8	+$1.34	76% 662-214 (876)
NostdamCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$18.7	$9.9	-$8.8	5% 6-110 (116)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$18	$9.6	-$8.4	26% 378-1084 (1462)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$14.3	$8.8	-$5.5	23% 512-1699 (2211)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 17.7¢	$10.6	$4.8	-$5.8	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$7	$4	-$3	3% 2-63 (65)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 14.6¢	$5.7	$3.13	-$2.57	48% 481-525 (1006)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$57	$2.52	+$0.04	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$2.43	$1.3	-$1.14	47% 518-588 (1106)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$1.13	$0.64	-$0.48	45% 512-638 (1150)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.45

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$1.34

Record

76%

662-214 (876)

NostdamCTR<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$8.8

Record

6-110 (116)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$8.4

Record

26%

378-1084 (1462)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$14.3

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$5.5

Record

23%

512-1699 (2211)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$5.8

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$3

Record

2-63 (65)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$2.57

Record

48%

481-525 (1006)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$57

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.04

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.43

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$1.14

Record

47%

518-588 (1106)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.48

Record

45%

512-638 (1150)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.