Will "How to Rob a Bank" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$213.93

Combined PnL

-$10.19

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 98.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$206.04

Total Shares209

Combined PnL+$9.43

Yes4 traders

Total Value$7.89

Total Shares440

Combined PnL-$19.61

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$78.77	$79.21	+$0.44	47% 518-588 (1106)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 84¢	$60.47	$63.5	+$7.19	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29.61	+$0.24	24% 91-281 (372)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 92¢	$19.66	$21.09	+$1.43	27% 948-2550 (3498)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$12.5	$12.62	+$0.12	40% 1474-2198 (3672)
NostdamCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$6.3	$4.95	-$1.35	5% 6-110 (116)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$18.33	$2.31	-$16.02	11% 6-50 (56)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.62	$0.42	-$0.78	3% 2-63 (65)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$1.67	$0.21	-$1.46	34% 523-997 (1520)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$78.77

Value

$79.21

PnL

+$0.44

Record

47%

518-588 (1106)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$60.47

Value

$63.5

PnL

+$7.19

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.61

PnL

+$0.24

Record

24%

91-281 (372)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$19.66

Value

$21.09

PnL

+$1.43

Record

27%

948-2550 (3498)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.62

PnL

+$0.12

Record

40%

1474-2198 (3672)

NostdamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$1.35

Record

6-110 (116)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.33

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$16.02

Record

11%

6-50 (56)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$0.78

Record

2-63 (65)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.46

Record

34%

523-997 (1520)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.