Will "How to Rob a Bank" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 88¢ · $354 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$354.24
-$1.31
83.7¢ → 87.5¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 84.2¢ | $173.29 | $180.19 | +$6.9 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $42.12 | $44.95 | +$2.83 | 25% 83-244 (327) |
 NostdamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $54 | $39 | -$15 | 5% 6-109 (115) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $35.33 | $37.7 | +$2.37 | 27% 940-2516 (3456) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $26.4 | $26.1 | -$0.3 | 40% 1463-2159 (3622) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $17.5 | +$1.1 | 53% 5821-5182 (11003) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $8 | $8.8 | +$0.8 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
balthazarInvested
$173.29
Value
$180.19
PnL
+$6.9
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
Invested
$42.12
Value
$44.95
PnL
+$2.83
Record
25%
83-244 (327)
NostdamCTR<$100Invested
$54
Value
$39
PnL
-$15
Record
5%
6-109 (115)
Invested
$35.33
Value
$37.7
PnL
+$2.37
Record
27%
940-2516 (3456)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$26.1
PnL
-$0.3
Record
40%
1463-2159 (3622)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$17.5
PnL
+$1.1
Record
53%
5821-5182 (11003)
Invested
$8
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.