Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "How to Rob a Bank" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $178 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$178.33
-$196.61
16.7¢ → 0.5¢
-97% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $55.63 | $55.6 | -$0.03 | 27% 110-295 (405) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $50.97 | $51.11 | +$0.14 | 40% 1494-2225 (3719) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $58.29 | $50.77 | -$3.35 | 40% 3295-4922 (8217) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.9 | +$0 | 53% 6191-5476 (11667) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $318.48 | $0.81 | -$164.54 | 46% 4852-5648 (10500) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $57.98 | $0.08 | -$20.56 | 28% 534-1403 (1937) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $5 | $0.03 | -$4.97 | 19% 113-491 (604) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $3.33 | $0.02 | -$3.31 | 61% 524-330 (854) |
Invested
$55.63
Value
$55.6
PnL
-$0.03
Record
27%
110-295 (405)
Invested
$50.97
Value
$51.11
PnL
+$0.14
Record
40%
1494-2225 (3719)
Invested
$58.29
Value
$50.77
PnL
-$3.35
Record
40%
3295-4922 (8217)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6191-5476 (11667)
balthazarCTRInvested
$318.48
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$164.54
Record
46%
4852-5648 (10500)
Invested
$57.98
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$20.56
Record
28%
534-1403 (1937)
Invested
$5
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.97
Record
19%
113-491 (604)
Invested
$3.33
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.31
Record
61%
524-330 (854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.