Will "How to Rob a Bank" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 99¢ · $389 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$388.82

Combined PnL

-$179.22

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 99.4¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$386.13

Total Shares387

Combined PnL-$0.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.68

Total Shares447

Combined PnL-$178.89

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 98.9¢	$135.74	$137.11	+$1.37	26% 900-2527 (3427)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$81.81	$76.03	-$1.62	40% 3331-4967 (8298)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$54.07	$53.85	-$0.22	48% 568-611 (1179)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49.31	$49.09	-$0.22	60% 528-346 (874)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.97	+$0.03	29% 917-2195 (3112)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$19.78	$19.98	+$0.2	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$9.99	$10.15	+$0.16	48% 13-14 (27)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.94	-$0.04	29% 141-351 (492)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$726.74	$1.9	-$158.01	46% 4874-5695 (10569)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$18.33	$0.66	-$17.67	11% 9-76 (85)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$3.33	$0.12	-$3.21	20% 123-497 (620)

graynotebook19

Invested

$135.74

Value

$137.11

PnL

+$1.37

Record

26%

900-2527 (3427)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$81.81

Value

$76.03

PnL

-$1.62

Record

40%

3331-4967 (8298)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$54.07

Value

$53.85

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

568-611 (1179)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$49.31

Value

$49.09

PnL

-$0.22

Record

60%

528-346 (874)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

29%

917-2195 (3112)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

13-14 (27)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

29%

141-351 (492)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$726.74

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$158.01

Record

46%

4874-5695 (10569)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.33

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$17.67

Record

11%

9-76 (85)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$3.21

Record

20%

123-497 (620)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.