Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "How to Rob a Bank" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$250.43

Combined PnL

-$198.61

Smart Money Entry

16.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$249.23

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$15.13

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.2

Total Shares1,201

Combined PnL-$213.73

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$80.46	$80.5	+$0.04	58% 468-339 (807)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$72.57	$72.72	+$0.15	27% 948-2550 (3498)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 71¢	$46.4	$52.97	+$14.9	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$43	$43.05	+$0.04	40% 1474-2198 (3672)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$248.12	$0.91	-$165.03	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$20.68	$0.12	-$20.56	28% 532-1393 (1925)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$18.33	$0.11	-$18.22	11% 6-50 (56)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$8.33	$0.05	-$8.28	30% 513-1187 (1700)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$8.03	$0	-$1.64	34% 523-997 (1520)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$80.46

Value

$80.5

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$72.57

Value

$72.72

PnL

+$0.15

Record

27%

948-2550 (3498)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$46.4

Value

$52.97

PnL

+$14.9

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$43

Value

$43.05

PnL

+$0.04

Record

40%

1474-2198 (3672)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$248.12

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$165.03

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.68

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$20.56

Record

28%

532-1393 (1925)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.33

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$18.22

Record

11%

6-50 (56)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.33

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.28

Record

30%

513-1187 (1700)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.03

Value

PnL

-$1.64

Record

34%

523-997 (1520)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.