Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 US song this week?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $737 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$737

Combined PnL

-$34.39

Smart Money Entry

30.7¢ → 0.3¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$685.35

Total Shares687

Combined PnL+$294.02

Yes5 traders

Total Value$51.57

Total Shares1,331

Combined PnL-$328.41

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
clazzy1	Noavg 63.1¢	$222.71	$347.04	+$124.33	64% 484-268 (752)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 90.7¢	$143.56	$137.99	+$83.64	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 24.3¢	$26.7	$109.78	+$83.08	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$72.99	$49	-$3.49	14% 461-2758 (3219)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.94	-$0	51% 3690-3541 (7231)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.93	$29.94	+$0.01	46% 10318-12012 (22330)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 89¢	$22.88	$25.66	+$2.78	18% 345-1584 (1929)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$4.81	$4.99	+$0.18	50% 659-658 (1317)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Yesavg 34.7¢	$355.44	$2.05	-$353.91	62% 368-226 (594)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$99.66	$0.26	+$31.82	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$1.64	$0.19	-$1.45	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yes	$0.06	$0.06	-$1.39	77% 12539-3686 (16225)

clazzy1

Invested

$222.71

Value

$347.04

PnL

+$124.33

Record

64%

484-268 (752)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$143.56

Value

$137.99

PnL

+$83.64

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

smallreceipt

Invested

$26.7

Value

$109.78

PnL

+$83.08

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.99

Value

$49

PnL

-$3.49

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.94

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

3690-3541 (7231)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.93

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

10318-12012 (22330)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$22.88

Value

$25.66

PnL

+$2.78

Record

18%

345-1584 (1929)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Yes

Invested

$355.44

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$353.91

Record

62%

368-226 (594)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.66

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$31.82

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.45

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.39

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7230.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

7330.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.