Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 60¢ · $503 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
1 arb excluded
$502.62
$153.96
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $113.84 | $296.31 | +$182.47 | — 1-6 (7) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73ARB<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $224.42 | $158.81 | -$65.61 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $87.36 | $85.83 | -$1.53 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77¢ | $137.06 | $72.98 | -$64.08 | |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $36.07 | $20.83 | -$15.24 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $21.6 | $12.3 | -$9.3 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $10 | $9.63 | -$0.38 | 41% 3010-4414 (7424) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $8.35 | $4.76 | -$3.6 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
Invested
$113.84
Value
$296.31
PnL
+$182.47
Record
—
1-6 (7)
Invested
$224.42
Value
$158.81
PnL
-$65.61
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
Both legs:
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$36.07
Value
$20.83
PnL
-$15.24
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$12.3
PnL
-$9.3
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.63
PnL
-$0.38
Record
41%
3010-4414 (7424)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$8.35
Value
$4.76
PnL
-$3.6
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.