Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 song this week?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 65¢ · $400 held · ends Nov 7

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$400.14

Combined PnL

$19.51

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 65¢

-15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$387.54

Total Shares431

Combined PnL+$21.1

No1 trader

Total Value$12.6

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$1.59

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 83.4¢	$208.4	$215	+$6.6	60% 314-210 (524)
Istaroth	Yesavg 69.4¢	$125.19	$121.52	-$1.05	18% 366-1654 (2020)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$33.44	$47.15	+$13.71	53% 6697-5893 (12590)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 15.8¢	$14.19	$12.6	-$1.59	61% 21355-13647 (35002)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$2.03	$3.88	+$1.85	36% 16083-28096 (44179)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$208.4

Value

$215

PnL

+$6.6

Record

60%

314-210 (524)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$125.19

Value

$121.52

PnL

-$1.05

Record

18%

366-1654 (2020)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.44

Value

$47.15

PnL

+$13.71

Record

53%

6697-5893 (12590)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$14.19

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$1.59

Record

61%

21355-13647 (35002)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.03

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$1.85

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.