Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Home Depot (HD) Q3 comparable sales growth be from 1.25% to under 1.5%?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$120.07

Combined PnL

-$26.6

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$119.79

Total Shares120

Combined PnL+$3.1

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.28

Total Shares283

Combined PnL-$29.7

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$39.2	$39.96	+$0.76	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$28.47	$29.97	+$1.5	42% 1635-2289 (3924)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$29.04	$29.97	+$0.93	34% 238-461 (699)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.89	-$0.09	35% 290-535 (825)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$19.68	$0.19	-$19.49	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.99	$0.03	-$0.96	30% 197-458 (655)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$19.68	$0.03	-$5.24	35% 3807-6929 (10736)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$2.5	$0.02	-$2.48	13% 22-150 (172)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$1.54	$0.01	-$1.53	17% 25-124 (149)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.2

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.76

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$28.47

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$1.5

Record

42%

1635-2289 (3924)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.04

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.93

Record

34%

238-461 (699)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.89

PnL

-$0.09

Record

35%

290-535 (825)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.68

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$19.49

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.96

Record

30%

197-458 (655)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.68

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.24

Record

35%

3807-6929 (10736)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.48

Record

13%

22-150 (172)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.53

Record

17%

25-124 (149)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6048.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

6148.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.