Will Home Depot (HD) Q3 comparable sales growth be from 1% to under 1.25%?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 17

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$131.09

Combined PnL

-$24.25

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 99.6¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$129.87

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$2.12

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.22

Total Shares272

Combined PnL-$26.37

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$39.2	$39.96	+$0.76	53% 7196-6292 (13488)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 96¢	$28.8	$29.97	+$1.17	28% 1054-2759 (3813)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.78	$29.97	+$0.2	42% 1655-2297 (3952)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.98	+$0	31% 1081-2425 (3506)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	38% 286-470 (756)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.6¢	$23.24	$0.99	-$22.25	39% 3706-5907 (9613)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.32	$0.09	-$0.23	32% 224-485 (709)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$2.5	$0.09	-$2.41	15% 28-157 (185)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$1.54	$0.06	-$1.48	17% 29-141 (170)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.2

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.76

Record

53%

7196-6292 (13488)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$1.17

Record

28%

1054-2759 (3813)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.78

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.2

Record

42%

1655-2297 (3952)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

1081-2425 (3506)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

286-470 (756)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.24

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$22.25

Record

39%

3706-5907 (9613)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.23

Record

32%

224-485 (709)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$2.41

Record

15%

28-157 (185)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.48

Record

17%

29-141 (170)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.