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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $182 held · ends Feb 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$182.09
-$0.32
93.7¢ → 93.6¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 93.9¢ | $131.48 | $132.86 | +$1.38 | 41% 3094-4461 (7555) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $23.79 | $23.59 | -$0.2 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $14.22 | $14.04 | -$0.17 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $9.52 | $9.49 | -$0.03 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $3.4 | $2.11 | -$1.3 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
Invested
$131.48
Value
$132.86
PnL
+$1.38
Record
41%
3094-4461 (7555)
Invested
$23.79
Value
$23.59
PnL
-$0.2
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.22
Value
$14.04
PnL
-$0.17
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.49
PnL
-$0.03
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$2.11
PnL
-$1.3
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.