Will Hock Tan be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $229 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$228.8

Combined PnL

$88.4

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 99.6¢

+83% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$221.78

Total Shares222

Combined PnL+$99.98

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.56

Total Shares1,875

Combined PnL-$11.58

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 50¢	$101.43	$201.47	+$100.03	40% 3240-4885 (8125)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.37	$20.32	-$0.05	62% 463-283 (746)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.81	$2.49	-$5.16	52% 1614-1485 (3099)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$2.45	-$4.09	— 1-0 (1)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$2.34	$0.88	-$1.46	39% 63-100 (163)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.44	$0.54	-$0.9	48% 19-21 (40)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.11	$0.19	+$0.08	12% 36-262 (298)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$0.02	-$0.04	34% 523-997 (1520)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$101.43

Value

$201.47

PnL

+$100.03

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.37

Value

$20.32

PnL

-$0.05

Record

62%

463-283 (746)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$5.16

Record

52%

1614-1485 (3099)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$4.09

Record

—

1-0 (1)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$1.46

Record

39%

63-100 (163)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

19-21 (40)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.08

Record

12%

36-262 (298)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.04

Record

34%

523-997 (1520)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.