Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$4.8K
$150.87
96.5¢ → 98.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
413h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 96.3¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$67.05 | 66% 1105-564 (1669) |
 Filobestia | Noavg 98¢ | $656.6 | $657.61 | +$5.36 | 91% 59-6 (65) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 97.4¢ | $479 | $482.66 | +$5.38 | 76% 11207-3456 (14663) |
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 95¢ | $427.5 | $439.94 | +$16.36 | 36% 2046-3660 (5706) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $12.34 | $3.62 | +$56.72 | 36% 15601-27545 (43146) |
DEGENKHANInvested
$3,134.65
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$67.05
Record
66%
1105-564 (1669)
FilobestiaInvested
$656.6
Value
$657.61
PnL
+$5.36
Record
91%
59-6 (65)
Invested
$479
Value
$482.66
PnL
+$5.38
Record
76%
11207-3456 (14663)
Invested
$427.5
Value
$439.94
PnL
+$16.36
Record
36%
2046-3660 (5706)
Invested
$12.34
Value
$3.62
PnL
+$56.72
Record
36%
15601-27545 (43146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.