Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $326 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$325.63
-$52.53
80¢ → 93.9¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 81.5¢ | $108.64 | $116.4 | +$7.76 | 41% 3104-4461 (7565) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 78.7¢ | $114.55 | $114.3 | -$0.25 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $64.6 | $64.3 | -$0.3 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
AN anoin123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $90.38 | $30.63 | -$59.75 | 46% 459-547 (1006) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.