Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2030
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$143.54
79.2¢ → 86.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
821h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 mombil | Noavg 75.4¢ | $976.38 | $1.1K | +$143.16 | 56% 1244-995 (2239) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 86¢ | $511.56 | $514.53 | +$2.97 | 56% 16350-13102 (29452) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $84.88 | $87.41 | +$2.53 | 43% 2312-3103 (5415) |
 2B9SARB<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $97.29 | $75.64 | -$7.85 | 17% 4487-21970 (26457) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 86¢ | $49.2 | $49.49 | +$0.29 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19¢ | $36.71 | $26.15 | -$8.14 | |
BU buoysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $0.18 | $69.07 | -$9.44 | 46% 741-884 (1625) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $41.8 | $43.25 | +$1.45 | 46% 9374-11127 (20501) |
NE NewshoundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $30 | $27 | -$3 | 55% 790-654 (1444) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $15.5 | $9.77 | -$1.98 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $8.6 | $8.65 | +$0.05 | 43% 10590-14068 (24658) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.24 | $8.24 | +$8 | 31% 3237-7104 (10341) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $2.11 | $1.91 | -$0.2 | 77% 12683-3868 (16551) |
mombilInvested
$976.38
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$143.16
Record
56%
1244-995 (2239)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$511.56
Value
$514.53
PnL
+$2.97
Record
56%
16350-13102 (29452)
Invested
$84.88
Value
$87.41
PnL
+$2.53
Record
43%
2312-3103 (5415)
2B9SARB<$100Invested
$97.29
Value
$75.64
PnL
-$7.85
Record
17%
4487-21970 (26457)
Both legs:
Invested
$0.18
Value
$69.07
PnL
-$9.44
Record
46%
741-884 (1625)
Invested
$41.8
Value
$43.25
PnL
+$1.45
Record
46%
9374-11127 (20501)
Invested
$30
Value
$27
PnL
-$3
Record
55%
790-654 (1444)
Invested
$15.5
Value
$9.77
PnL
-$1.98
Record
58%
21138-15369 (36507)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
43%
10590-14068 (24658)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$8.24
PnL
+$8
Record
31%
3237-7104 (10341)
Invested
$2.11
Value
$1.91
PnL
-$0.2
Record
77%
12683-3868 (16551)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.