Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Heartland" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$108.06

Combined PnL

-$86.38

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$101.14

Total Shares101

Combined PnL-$0.79

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.92

Total Shares910

Combined PnL-$85.59

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$39.35	$39.96	+$0.61	35% 330-600 (930)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.12	$16.12	+$0	30% 1175-2733 (3908)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.42	$9.99	-$1.4	38% 317-524 (841)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.09	$5.09	+$0	52% 909-844 (1753)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 20.9¢	$151.69	$2.94	-$4.95	49% 383-400 (783)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$78.47	$1.87	-$41.92	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$163.39	$0.81	-$14.02	26% 55-157 (212)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$18.35	$0.79	-$7.14	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$16.23	$0.46	-$15.78	17% 34-165 (199)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$24.23	$0.04	-$1.79	35% 3905-7251 (11156)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.35

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.61

Record

35%

330-600 (930)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$16.12

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$11.42

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$1.4

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.69

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$4.95

Record

49%

383-400 (783)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.47

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$41.92

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.39

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$14.02

Record

26%

55-157 (212)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.35

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$7.14

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.23

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$15.78

Record

17%

34-165 (199)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.23

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.79

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.