Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Heartland" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $209 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$209.25

Combined PnL

-$113.87

Smart Money Entry

22.2¢ → 0.9¢

-96% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$197.5

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$53.61

Yes7 traders

Total Value$11.74

Total Shares939

Combined PnL-$167.48

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 97.1¢	$121.39	$123.44	+$2.05	34% 333-661 (994)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 30¢	$22.5	$74.06	+$51.56	28% 1077-2772 (3849)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 30.4¢	$607.73	$5.99	-$228.27	49% 359-370 (729)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$37.15	$2.49	-$34.66	48% 1236-1313 (2549)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$478.64	$1.93	+$104.72	38% 3779-6149 (9928)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$3.65	$1.05	-$2.6	17% 94-454 (548)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$9.1	$0.18	-$8.92	52% 195-179 (374)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$3.42	$0.06	+$1.43	35% 3865-7145 (11010)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$4.94	$0.04	+$0.82	14% 98-587 (685)

godblessme2026

Invested

$121.39

Value

$123.44

PnL

+$2.05

Record

34%

333-661 (994)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$74.06

PnL

+$51.56

Record

28%

1077-2772 (3849)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$607.73

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$228.27

Record

49%

359-370 (729)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.15

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$34.66

Record

48%

1236-1313 (2549)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$478.64

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$104.72

Record

38%

3779-6149 (9928)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.65

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$2.6

Record

17%

94-454 (548)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.1

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$8.92

Record

52%

195-179 (374)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.42

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$1.43

Record

35%

3865-7145 (11010)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.94

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$0.82

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5052.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5152.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.