Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Heartland" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $212 held · ends Nov 18

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$211.93

Combined PnL

$9.31

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$194.77

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$10.25

Yes5 traders

Total Value$17.15

Total Shares187

Combined PnL-$0.94

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 88.8¢	$112.48	$105.79	+$10.92	48% 274-292 (566)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.84	$59.39	-$0.45	34% 234-460 (694)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.81	-$0.15	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.85	$9.79	-$0.06	35% 251-467 (718)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$4.74	$7.66	+$2.93	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$6.1	$4.49	-$1.42	9% 15-143 (158)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$3.02	$2.31	-$0.7	16% 24-123 (147)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$0.89	$2.28	+$1.39	43% 5075-6628 (11703)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$41.73	$0.4	-$3.14	27% 1021-2713 (3734)

Gaditima

Invested

$112.48

Value

$105.79

PnL

+$10.92

Record

48%

274-292 (566)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$59.84

Value

$59.39

PnL

-$0.45

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.81

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.06

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.74

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$2.93

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$1.42

Record

15-143 (158)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0.7

Record

16%

24-123 (147)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$1.39

Record

43%

5075-6628 (11703)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.73

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$3.14

Record

27%

1021-2713 (3734)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.