Will Harry Shum Jr. win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 86¢ · $557 held · ends Dec 31

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$556.64

Combined PnL

-$94.75

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 86.3¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$453.74

Total Shares527

Combined PnL-$84.16

Yes4 traders

Total Value$102.44

Total Shares620

Combined PnL-$10.6

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 88.6¢	$603.44	$419.89	-$83.58	35% 17407-32097 (49504)
GUHHHCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$70.56	$55.61	-$13.27	78% 880-250 (1130)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$34.43	$33.85	-$0.58	79% 11666-3099 (14765)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.4¢	$24.01	$24.16	-$3.33	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$14.16	$20.52	+$6.37	49% 2613-2676 (5289)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.1¢	$2.51	$2.15	-$0.36	48% 6875-7517 (14392)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$603.44

Value

$419.89

PnL

-$83.58

Record

35%

17407-32097 (49504)

GUHHHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.56

Value

$55.61

PnL

-$13.27

Record

78%

880-250 (1130)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$34.43

Value

$33.85

PnL

-$0.58

Record

79%

11666-3099 (14765)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.01

Value

$24.16

PnL

-$3.33

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.16

Value

$20.52

PnL

+$6.37

Record

49%

2613-2676 (5289)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.51

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.36

Record

48%

6875-7517 (14392)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.8%

86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.